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Showing posts from May, 2012

Where Are House Prices Actually Headed?

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By The KCM Crew

We are often asked where we believe home values are headed. To answer this question we want to quote three separate reports that have been published in the last 60 days: the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES), the Urban Land Institute Real Estate Consensus Forecast (ULI) and the Demand Institute’s Report (DIR): The Shifting Nature of U.S. Housing Demand. Here are their projections:

A slow but steady return is projected by all.

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Sales Are Up. Prices Still Have a Way To Go.

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By The KCM Crew

We believe the housing market is recovering. We believe that sales will be robust through the rest of the year. However, we also believe that the increase in demand will not impact prices in a big way as we think there will also be an increase in the supply of homes coming to the market. This increase in supply will offset the increase in demand. The increase in supply will be fueled by two categories of inventory:

1. Foreclosures entering the market as a result of the National Mortgage Settlement.
2. Pent up supply of homeowners who have been unable to sell their homes over the last several years.

There have been several recent headlines making strong statements about home values in the country. We must be sure to read the ENTIRE report – not just the headlines. Here are four headlines and the portion of the report that reflects the caution in their ‘cautious optimism’.

HEADLINE:
LPS Home Price Index Shows U.S. Home Price Increase of 0.2 Percent in February; Early…

Further Proof the Real Estate Market Is Coming Back

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By The KCM Crew

Last week, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their Pending Sales Report which showed that contracted sales were 12.8% higher than the same month last year and higher than any time since sales were impacted by the Homebuyers’ Credit back in April of 2010. The index stood at 101.4 which represents a level that is “historically healthy” (see methodology below). Here is a graph showing pending sales over the last twelve months:


The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing. The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallel…